A True Expert Knows which Question Should be Asked . ∗
نویسنده
چکیده
We suggest a test for discovering whether a potential expert is informed of the distribution of a stochastic process. In a non-Bayesian non-parametric setting, the expert is asked to make a prediction which is tested against a single realization of the stochastic process. It is shown that by asking the expert to predict a “small” set of sequences, the test will assure that any informed expert can pass the test with probability one with respect to the actual distribution. Moreover, for the uninformed non-expert it is impossible to pass this test, in the sense that for any choice of a “small” set of sequences, only a “small” set of measures will assign a positive probability to the given set. Hence for “most” measures, the non-expert will surely fail the test. We define small as category 1 sets, described in more detail in the paper. JEL Classification: D83, C14, C50 ∗We would like to thank Alvaro Sandroni, Eilon Solan and Bob Wilson for helpful comments. The first author gratefully acknowledges the support of the NSF. The second author gratefully acknowledges the support of the Center for Electronic Business and Commerce. †Department of Economics, Northwestern University, Evanston, USA and Tel-Aviv University, Tel-Aviv, Israel. e-mail: [email protected] ‡Stanford Graduate School of Business, Stanford CA 94305-5015. e-mail: [email protected]
منابع مشابه
Knowledge and the Problem of Logical Omniscience
The notion of knowledge has recently acquired a great deal of importance in Computer Science, partly because of its importance in AI and expert systems, but also because of applications in distributed computing and possible, even likely relevance to cryptography. See [H2] for a representative collection of papers on knowledge. An important outstanding problem in the logic of knowledge is the pr...
متن کاملLotfi Zadeh: a Pioneer in AI, a Pioneer in Statistical Analysis, a Pioneer in Foundations of Mathematics, and a True Citizen of the World
Everyone knows Lotfi Zadeh as the Father of Fuzzy Logic. There have been – and will be – many papers on this important topic. What I want to emphasize in this paper is that his ideas go way beyond fuzzy logic: • he was a pioneer in AI; • he was a pioneer in statistical analysis; and • he was a pioneer in foundations of mathematics. My goal is to explain these ideas to non-fuzzy folks. I also wa...
متن کاملAre software engineers true engineers?
Are software engineers engineers? Or more exactly: Can software engineers legitimately be called engineers? This is an ambiguous question. Its interpretation depends on the situation in which it is asked. It might be asked in a situation in which practice-oriented engineering disciplines have more chances to be sponsored publicly: In this case it would be the question if software engineering sh...
متن کاملKnowing whether A or B
Can we say that s knows whether A or B when s is only able to rule out A, but remains uncertain about B? We discuss a set of examples put forward by J. Schaffer’s in favour of a contextualist answer to this problem. We present a context-sensitive and dynamic semantics for knowledge attributions, in which those can depend on the alternatives raised by the embedded question, but also on alternati...
متن کامل